Posts Tagged ‘pre poll results for gujarath election’
CNN IBN CSDS pre poll survey in gujarat election 2012
Lokmat CNN IBN CSDS pre poll survey in gujarat election 2012. Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) done pre poll survey for HP and Gujarat 2012
CNN-IBN pre-poll survey in Gujarat conducted by CSDS will telecast today on IBN7 news channel.
Is narendra modi will make a hat trick in gujaratpoll 2012?
CSDS -CNN – IBN Gujarat elections survey Gujarat survey: BJP is better placed to win
pre poll survey in gujarat 2012 have taken a survey on many issue like corruption, employment, development, inflation, law and order etc.
Overall a Positive Report Card for Modi government
| Over the last five years… |
Improved |
Worsened |
Remained same |
| Condition of roads in Gujarat has… |
67 |
18 |
12 |
| Condition of govt hospitals in Gujarat has… |
53 |
18 |
22 |
| Supply of electricity in Gujarat has… |
63 |
16 |
16 |
| Condition of govt schools in Gujarat has… |
57 |
16 |
19 |
| Supply of drinking water has… |
52 |
22 |
21 |
| Development of Gujarat has… |
58 |
13 |
18 |
| Public transport services in Gujarat have… |
47 |
19 |
26 |
| Irrigation facilities have… |
43 |
20 |
22 |
| Law and order situation in Gujarat has… |
31 |
23 |
27 |
| Hindu-Muslim relations have… |
44 |
15 |
25 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion
Only Condition of Farmers and Employment generation rated negatively
| Over the last five years… |
Improved |
Worsened |
Remained same |
| Condition of farmers in Gujarat has… |
26 |
35 |
24 |
| Employment opportunities have… |
38 |
38 |
16 |
Most say Gujarat developed under BJP rule; most non-BJP non-Cong voters also credit BJP
|
Gujarat developed under… |
All |
Traditional BJP supporters |
Traditional Cong supporters |
Traditional Non-BJP, non-Cong supporters |
|
Congress rule |
16 |
6 |
42 |
9 |
|
BJP rule |
43 |
65 |
12 |
28 |
|
Under both Cong rule and BJP rule |
23 |
22 |
29 |
15 |
|
Neither under Cong rule nor under BJP rule |
5 |
2 |
5 |
20 |
|
No opinion |
13 |
5 |
12 |
28 |
Note: All figures are in percent
But Development for whom: Rich and Poor view it differently
|
Opinion among… |
Development in Gujarat under BJP rule has been… |
||
|
Only for rich |
For both rich and poor |
Has not taken place |
|
|
All |
42 |
40 |
5 |
|
Upper and Middle Class |
38 |
50 |
3 |
|
Lower Class and Poor |
47 |
30 |
6 |
Note: All figures are in percent; rest had no opinion
Most say Land being sold to big industrial houses at low rates
| Over the last five years Gujarat govt has sold land to big industrial houses… |
All |
| At very low rates |
41 |
| At adequate rates |
22 |
| Can’t say |
37 |
Note: All figures are in percent
Price rise most important election issue in Gujarat followed by Farmers’ issues
|
Most important election issue |
% |
|
Price rise |
42 |
|
Farmers’ issues/problems |
19 |
|
Unemployment |
12 |
|
Corruption |
9 |
|
Condition of roads |
3 |
|
Gujarat’s leadership |
3 |
|
Electricity/Water supply |
2 |
|
Development of Gujarat |
2 |
|
Law and order |
1 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion
STATE OR CENTRAL GOVERNMENT: WHO HAS A BETTER IMAGE?
More people blame Cong-led Central govt than BJP-led State govt for rising prices
|
Which govt is more responsible for price rise – State or Central? |
% |
|
State govt responsible |
14 |
|
Central govt responsible |
27 |
|
Both responsible |
39 |
|
Neither responsible |
2 |
Note: Rest can’t say/no opinion
Both Central and State govts seen as being corrupt, Central govt more so
|
Corruption rating of Central and State Governments |
Very corrupt |
Somewhat corrupt |
Not much corrupt |
Not at all corrupt |
No opinion |
|
Congress-led UPA govt |
24 |
42 |
9 |
5 |
20 |
|
BJP State govt |
16 |
43 |
15 |
10 |
16 |
Note: All figures are in percent; this question was asked separately for each government.
Satisfaction with State government’s performance higher than satisfaction with Central government’s performance
|
Governments’ performance |
Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
No opinion |
|
Cong-led UPA govt |
57 |
30 |
13 |
| Gujarat’s BJP govt |
71 |
19 |
10 |
Note: All figures are in percent; this question was asked separately for each government.
Satisfaction with Modi’s performance as CM higher than satisfaction with Manmohan’s performance as PM
|
Leaders’ performance |
Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
No opinion |
|
Manmohan as PM |
55 |
28 |
17 |
|
Modi as CM |
73 |
18 |
9 |
Note: All figures are in percent; this question was asked separately for each leader.
HOW DOES MODI’S GOVT & LEADERSHIP COMPARE WITH OTHER POPULAR GOVTS & CMs?
Govt Performance Satisfaction: Comparison with Govts which were re-elected
Satisfaction with Modi Govt high but slightly less than the satisfaction with Nitish, Shivraj, Raman and Patnaik’s Govts
|
People’s satisfaction with Government’s performance at the time of elections |
Those satisfied with performance of Govt |
|
Gujarat 2012 |
71 |
|
Punjab 2012 |
55 |
|
Assam 2011 |
64 |
|
Bihar 2010 |
77 |
|
Maharashtra 2009 |
61 |
|
Andhra 2009 |
60 |
|
Orissa 2009 |
74 |
|
Madhya Pradesh 2008 |
77 |
|
Chhattisgarh 2008 |
75 |
|
Delhi 2008 |
65 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest of the respondents were dissatisfied or had no opinion; Figures based on Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted at the time of elections; Figures not available from Haryana 2009.
CM Performance Satisfaction: Comparison with CMs who were re-elected
Satisfaction with Modi’s work as CM high but not as high as it was with Shivraj, Nitish and Raman
|
People’s satisfaction with CM’s performance at the time of elections |
Those satisfied with performance of CM |
|
Modi 2012 |
73 |
|
Badal 2012 |
63 |
|
Gogoi 2011 |
72 |
|
Nitish 2010 |
79 |
|
Shivraj 2008 |
81 |
|
Raman 2008 |
77 |
|
Sheila 2008 |
64 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest of the respondents were dissatisfied or had no opinion; Figures based on Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted at the time of elections; Figures not available for Hooda 2009, Reddy 2009, and Patnaik 2009.
PEOPLE’S OPINION ON MODI
Changing opinion on Narendra Modi over the last decade
|
Statements |
Those who agree |
||
|
2002 |
2007 |
2012 |
|
|
Modi’s style of speaking and campaigning are not consistent with Gujarat’s culture |
29 |
27 |
43 |
|
Gujarat’s honour/prestige has increased because of Modi |
47 |
52 |
67 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical questions were asked in both 2002 and 2007.
Changing opinion on Narendra Modi over the last five years
|
Statement |
Those who agree |
|
|
2007 |
2012 |
|
| Modi cannot be trusted to speak the truth |
29 |
38 |
| Modi works like a dictator |
34 |
34 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical question was asked in 2007
Modi’s Ministers going to jail: Divided opinion on Modi’s ‘culpability’
| Modi’s ministers going to jail or being convicted by court… |
% |
| Puts Modi himself in the dock |
31 |
| Doesn’t mean that Modi is culpable/tainted |
34 |
| No opinion |
35 |
MUSLIM OPINION ON MODI AND RIOTS
Muslim opinion about Modi changing somewhat?
| Opinion about Narendra Modi |
Among Muslims |
|
|
2009 |
2012 |
|
| Always liked him |
14 |
26 |
| Never liked him |
44 |
23 |
| Liked him earlier, but not anymore |
13 |
14 |
| Disliked him earlier, but like now |
6 |
5 |
Note: All figures are in percent; rest had no opinion; identical question was asked in Gujarat during the 2009 Lok Sabha polls
Changing opinion on riots over last decade: Majority of Hindus and Muslims want to forget 2002 riots, although the number was higher in 2002.
|
Statement – ‘Hindus and Muslims should forget 2002 Godhra and Post Godhra riots’ |
2002 |
2012 |
|
Hindus who agree |
68 |
67 |
|
Muslims who agree |
77 |
65 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical question was asked in 2002
Changing opinion on riots over last decade: Desire to see riots’ guilty punished much less today than it was ten years ago, among both Hindus and Muslims.
|
Statement – ‘It is necessary that those found guilty of 2002 riots be punished’ |
2002 |
2012 |
|
Hindus who agree |
85 |
68 |
|
Muslims who agree |
95 |
51 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical question was asked in 2002
Changing opinion on riots: Hindus and Muslims not as optimistic about communal peace as they were five years ago
|
Statement – ‘2002 type riots can never happen again’ |
2007 |
2012 |
|
Hindus who agree |
69 |
55 |
|
Muslims who agree |
80 |
55 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical question was asked in 2007
Not only Muslims, but most Hindus also of the opinion that Modi should apologise for 2002 riots
|
Opinion on Modi and the riots |
Muslims who |
Hindus who
|
||
|
Agree |
Disagree |
Agree |
Disagree |
|
|
Modi should apologise for the 2002 riots |
55 |
15 |
44 |
28 |
|
If Modi had wanted he could have stopped the riots in 2002 |
50 |
21 |
45 |
27 |
|
Modi’s sadbhavana fast was a political gimmick/farce |
51 |
16 |
42 |
32 |
Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion
OPINION ON KESHUBHAI
Divided opinion on Keshubhai Patel leaving the BJP, even among members of his own community
|
Keshubhai Patel… |
All |
Leuva Patels |
BJP supporters |
|
Did the right thing by leaving the BJP as he was not being given respect |
31 |
43 |
30 |
|
Should have stayed with the BJP and raised his concerns from within |
32 |
40 |
44 |
|
No opinion |
37 |
17 |
26 |
Note: All figures are in percent
IS CENTRE TARGETING AND BEING UNFAIR TO GUJARAT?
Most say CBI not being misused against Gujarat government
| Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) is… |
% |
| Being misused by the Central govt to target/harass the Gujarat govt |
23 |
| Doing its work impartially. Gujarat govt should have no problem with this. |
36 |
| No opinion |
42 |
Has Centre discriminated against Gujarat: Divided opinion
| Central government has… |
% |
| Given all possible help to Gujarat |
32 |
| Discriminated against Gujarat |
35 |
| Can’t say |
34 |
BJP supporters more supportive of Governor’s decision to appoint a Lokayukta than Cong supporters!
| Is the Governor’s decision to appoint a Lokayukta correct? |
All |
BJP supporters |
Cong supporters |
| Yes it is correct |
35 |
42 |
33 |
| No it is wrong |
14 |
17 |
12 |
| No opinion |
51 |
41 |
55 |
Note: All figures are in percent
OTHER INTERESTING FINDINGS
People’s trust in institutions has increased compared to 2002; trust in Gujarat police still the lowest but has also improved
|
Trust in.. |
2002 |
2012
|
||||
|
Great deal |
Somewhat |
Not at all |
Great deal |
Somewhat |
Not at all |
|
|
Gujarat’s government |
39 |
39 |
22 |
52 |
36 |
12 |
|
Gujarat’s courts/ judiciary |
33 |
42 |
25 |
34 |
50 |
16 |
|
Election Commission |
35 |
36 |
29 |
39 |
45 |
16 |
|
Gujarat’s government officers |
24 |
38 |
38 |
24 |
46 |
30 |
|
Gujarat’s police |
20 |
31 |
49 |
21 |
39 |
40 |
Note: All figures are in percent
Six out of 10 in favour of strengthening Indo-Pak relations, interestingly BJP supporters slightly more enthusiastic than Cong supporters
| Need to strengthen India-Pak relations? |
All |
BJP supporters |
Cong supporters |
| Yes |
61 |
67 |
63 |
| No |
21 |
21 |
20 |
| No opinion |
18 |
12 |
17 |
Note: All figures are in percent
High awareness of Cong’s Ghar nu Ghar (housing scheme) poll promise
|
|
Aware |
|
Keshubhai’s Gujarat Parivartan Party |
47 |
|
Cong slogan ‘Disha Badlo Dasha Badlo’ |
42 |
|
Modi’s Vivekanand Yuva Vikas Yatra |
48 |
|
Cong poll promise ‘Ghar nu Ghar’ |
59 |
We will update the survey once its go livegujarat election survey by ibn