Posts Tagged ‘pre poll results for gujarath election’




CNN IBN CSDS pre poll survey in gujarat election 2012

Lokmat CNN IBN CSDS pre poll survey in gujarat election 2012. Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) done pre poll survey for HP and Gujarat 2012
CNN-IBN pre-poll survey in Gujarat conducted by CSDS will telecast today on IBN7 news channel.

Is narendra modi will make a hat trick in gujaratpoll 2012?

CSDS -CNN – IBN Gujarat elections survey Gujarat survey: BJP is better placed to win
pre poll survey in gujarat 2012 have taken a survey on many issue like corruption, employment, development, inflation, law and order etc.

Overall a Positive Report Card for Modi government

Over the last five years…

Improved

Worsened

Remained same

Condition of roads in Gujarat has…

67

18

12

Condition of govt hospitals in Gujarat has…

53

18

22

Supply of electricity in Gujarat has…

63

16

16

Condition of govt schools in Gujarat has…

57

16

19

Supply of drinking water has…

52

22

21

Development of Gujarat has…

58

13

18

Public transport services in Gujarat have…

47

19

26

Irrigation facilities have…

43

20

22

Law and order situation in Gujarat has…

31

23

27

Hindu-Muslim relations have…

44

15

25

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion

Only Condition of Farmers and Employment generation rated negatively

Over the last five years…

Improved

Worsened

Remained same

Condition of farmers in Gujarat has…

26

35

24

Employment opportunities have…

38

38

16

 

Most say Gujarat developed under BJP rule; most non-BJP non-Cong voters also credit BJP

Gujarat developed under…

All

Traditional BJP supporters

Traditional Cong supporters

Traditional Non-BJP, non-Cong supporters

Congress rule

16

6

42

9

BJP rule

43

65

12

28

Under both Cong rule and BJP rule

23

22

29

15

Neither under Cong rule nor under BJP rule

5

2

5

20

No opinion

13

5

12

28

Note: All figures are in percent

But Development for whom: Rich and Poor view it differently

Opinion among…

Development in Gujarat under BJP rule has been…

Only for rich

For both rich and poor

Has not taken place

All

42

40

5

Upper and Middle Class

38

50

3

Lower Class and Poor

47

30

6

Note: All figures are in percent; rest had no opinion

Most say Land being sold to big industrial houses at low rates

Over the last five years Gujarat govt has sold land to big industrial houses…

All

At very low rates

41

At adequate rates

22

Can’t say

37

Note: All figures are in percent

Price rise most important election issue in Gujarat followed by Farmers’ issues

Most important election issue

%

Price rise

42

Farmers’ issues/problems

19

Unemployment

12

Corruption

9

Condition of roads

3

Gujarat’s leadership

3

Electricity/Water supply

2

Development of Gujarat

2

Law and order

1

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion

STATE OR CENTRAL GOVERNMENT: WHO HAS A BETTER IMAGE?

More people blame Cong-led Central govt than BJP-led State govt for rising prices

Which govt is more responsible for price rise – State or Central?

%

State govt responsible

14

Central govt responsible

27

Both responsible

39

Neither responsible

2

Note: Rest can’t say/no opinion

Both Central and State govts seen as being corrupt, Central govt more so

Corruption rating of Central and State Governments

Very corrupt

Somewhat corrupt

Not much corrupt

Not at all corrupt

No opinion

Congress-led UPA govt

24

42

9

5

20

BJP  State govt

16

43

15

10

16

Note: All figures are in percent; this question was asked separately for each government.

Satisfaction with State government’s performance higher than satisfaction with Central government’s performance

Governments’ performance

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

No opinion

Cong-led UPA govt

57

30

13

      Gujarat’s BJP govt

71

19

10

Note: All figures are in percent; this question was asked separately for each government.

Satisfaction with Modi’s performance as CM higher than satisfaction with Manmohan’s performance as PM

Leaders’ performance

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

No opinion

Manmohan as PM

55

28

17

Modi as CM

73

18

9

Note: All figures are in percent; this question was asked separately for each leader.

HOW DOES MODI’S GOVT & LEADERSHIP COMPARE WITH OTHER POPULAR GOVTS & CMs?

Govt Performance Satisfaction: Comparison with Govts which were re-elected

Satisfaction with Modi Govt high but slightly less than the satisfaction with Nitish, Shivraj, Raman and Patnaik’s Govts

People’s satisfaction with  Government’s performance at the time of elections

Those satisfied with performance of Govt

Gujarat 2012

71

Punjab 2012

55

Assam 2011

64

Bihar 2010

77

Maharashtra 2009

61

Andhra 2009

60

Orissa 2009

74

Madhya Pradesh 2008

77

Chhattisgarh 2008

75

Delhi 2008

65

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest of the respondents were dissatisfied or had no opinion; Figures based on Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted at the time of elections;  Figures not available from Haryana 2009.

CM Performance Satisfaction: Comparison with CMs who were re-elected

Satisfaction with Modi’s work as CM high but not as high as it was with Shivraj, Nitish and Raman

People’s satisfaction with  CM’s performance at the time of elections

Those satisfied with performance of CM

Modi 2012

73

Badal 2012

63

Gogoi 2011

72

Nitish 2010

79

Shivraj 2008

81

Raman 2008

77

Sheila 2008

64

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest of the respondents were dissatisfied or had no opinion; Figures based on Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted at the time of elections; Figures not available for Hooda 2009, Reddy 2009, and Patnaik 2009.

PEOPLE’S OPINION ON MODI

Changing opinion on Narendra Modi over the last decade

Statements

Those who agree

2002

2007

2012

Modi’s style of speaking and campaigning are not consistent with Gujarat’s culture

29

27

43

Gujarat’s honour/prestige has increased

because of Modi

47

52

67

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical questions were asked in both 2002 and 2007.

Changing opinion on Narendra Modi over the last five years

Statement

Those who agree

2007

2012

Modi cannot be trusted to speak the truth

29

38

Modi works like a dictator

34

34

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical question was asked in 2007

Modi’s Ministers going to jail: Divided opinion on Modi’s ‘culpability’

Modi’s ministers going to jail or being convicted by court…

%

Puts Modi himself in the dock

31

Doesn’t mean that Modi is culpable/tainted

34

No opinion

35

 

MUSLIM OPINION ON MODI AND RIOTS

Muslim opinion about Modi changing somewhat?

Opinion about Narendra Modi

Among Muslims

2009

2012

Always liked him

14

26

Never liked him

44

23

Liked him earlier, but not anymore

13

14

Disliked him earlier, but like now

6

5

Note: All figures are in percent; rest had no opinion; identical question was asked in Gujarat during the 2009 Lok Sabha polls

Changing opinion on riots over last decade: Majority of Hindus and Muslims want to forget 2002 riots, although the number was higher in 2002.

Statement – ‘Hindus and Muslims should forget 2002 Godhra and Post Godhra riots’

2002

2012

Hindus who agree

68

67

Muslims who agree

77

65

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical question was asked in 2002

Changing opinion on riots over last decade: Desire to see riots’ guilty punished much less today than it was ten years ago, among both Hindus and Muslims.

Statement – ‘It is necessary that those found guilty of 2002 riots be punished’

2002

2012

Hindus who agree

85

68

Muslims who agree

95

51

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical question was asked in 2002

Changing opinion on riots: Hindus and Muslims not as optimistic about communal peace as they were five years ago

Statement – ‘2002 type riots can never happen again’

2007

2012

Hindus who agree

69

55

Muslims who agree

80

55

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest disagreed or had no opinion; identical question was asked in 2007

Not only Muslims, but most Hindus also of the opinion that Modi should apologise for 2002 riots

Opinion on Modi and the riots

Muslims who

Hindus who

 

Agree

Disagree

Agree

Disagree

Modi should apologise for the 2002 riots

55

15

44

28

If Modi had wanted he could have stopped the riots in 2002

50

21

45

27

Modi’s sadbhavana fast was a political gimmick/farce

51

16

42

32

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest had no opinion

OPINION ON KESHUBHAI

Divided opinion on Keshubhai Patel leaving the BJP, even among members of his own community

Keshubhai Patel…

All

Leuva Patels

BJP supporters

Did the right thing by leaving the BJP as he was not being given respect

31

43

30

Should have stayed with the BJP and raised his concerns from within

32

40

44

No opinion

37

17

26

Note: All figures are in percent

IS CENTRE TARGETING AND BEING UNFAIR TO GUJARAT?

Most say CBI not being misused against Gujarat government

Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) is…

%

Being misused by the Central govt to target/harass the Gujarat govt

23

Doing its work impartially. Gujarat govt should have no problem with this.

36

No opinion

42

 

Has Centre discriminated against Gujarat: Divided opinion

Central government has…

%

Given all possible help to Gujarat

32

Discriminated against Gujarat

35

Can’t say

34

 

BJP supporters more supportive of Governor’s decision to appoint a Lokayukta than Cong supporters!

Is the Governor’s decision to appoint a Lokayukta correct?

All

BJP supporters

Cong supporters

Yes it is correct

35

42

33

No it is wrong

14

17

12

No opinion

51

41

55

Note: All figures are in percent

OTHER INTERESTING FINDINGS

People’s trust in institutions has increased compared to 2002; trust in Gujarat police still the lowest but has also improved

Trust in..

2002

2012

 

Great deal

Somewhat

Not at all

Great deal

Somewhat

Not at all

Gujarat’s government

39

39

22

52

36

12

Gujarat’s courts/

judiciary

33

42

25

34

50

16

Election Commission

35

36

29

39

45

16

Gujarat’s government officers

24

38

38

24

46

30

Gujarat’s police

20

31

49

21

39

40

Note: All figures are in percent

Six out of 10 in favour of strengthening Indo-Pak relations, interestingly BJP supporters slightly more enthusiastic than Cong supporters

Need to strengthen India-Pak relations?

All

BJP supporters

Cong supporters

Yes

61

67

63

No

21

21

20

No opinion

18

12

17

Note: All figures are in percent

High awareness of Cong’s Ghar nu Ghar (housing scheme) poll promise

 

Aware

Keshubhai’s Gujarat Parivartan Party

47

Cong slogan ‘Disha Badlo Dasha Badlo’

42

Modi’s Vivekanand Yuva Vikas Yatra

48

Cong poll promise ‘Ghar nu Ghar’

59

We will update the survey once its go livegujarat election survey by ibn

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